The fourth industrial revolution (4IR) is widely expected to completely disrupt the socio-economic status quo, promising “a better, cleaner, and safer world.” Unfortunately, the promises are not without negatives -- they are bundled with perils, which might exacerbate unemployment and income equality. 

The labour-intensive industries, in particular, are thought to be particularly susceptive to being catastrophically hit, and it is going to be caused by digitization, automation, and artificial intelligence. It is pertinent to delineate costs and benefits, and devise a multi-stakeholder strategy to safeguard the vulnerable groups.

Considered as the “next economic growth engine,” 4IR is expected to generate approximately $3.7 trillion worth of economic benefits by 2025 -- all through enhancing productivity and efficiency. 

WEF (World Economic Forum) estimates that manufacturing, logistics, and retail industries can reduce roughly 35% of their costs, resulting in savings and additional revenue. End consumers are expected to accrue some benefits. For example, online shopping can save billions of pounds for British consumers. 4IR also promises to revolutionize society by ensuring better access to services such as education, health care, finance, security, and others.

Although claimed by WEF and Accenture that 60% of the value created by digitization will be enjoyed by society, the economic loss for the average worker is inexplicable, when some 800 million globally may lose their jobs by 2030. While McKinsey Global Institute estimates that almost 50% of the “work activities” can be automated, the labour-intensive industries like manufacturing will suffer the most. 

For example, in 2013, the RMG sector employed around 4.4 million workers in Bangladesh, which dropped significantly to about 3.5 million in 2018. It is argued that one machine has the potential to make 10 workers redundant. 

Since women constitute 80% of this sector, they will pay the highest price, leaving millions unemployed, and bringing economic dependence on men. With very few transferable skills, this will only exasperate the situation, where millions are already unemployed. 

Rising unemployment and widening income inequality, brought about by technological disruptions, can create unprecedented social and political unrest, unless countries acknowledge their future in the 4IR era. Government, academia, private sector, trade union, and civil society organizations need to come together to create a comprehensive 4IR adoption strategy. 

Five points are suggested here which might facilitate the process. 

Firstly, a vulnerability study needs to be conducted to categorize vulnerable sectors and groups so that customized action plans can be devised. 

Secondly, a rehabilitation plan is crucial to retrain people with new skills and create alternative employment. 

Thirdly, a skilled based development scheme needs to be formulated to meet future demand and enhance employability. 

Fourthly, sector-wise employment programs should be outlined to sustain and boost job creation. 

Lastly, a public-private partnership-based approach should be fostered, so that industries can complement government’s efforts in not just maximizing revenue, but also maintaining a conducive socio-economic and political environment. 

While 4IR might look futuristic, the potentials, as well as the risks, are real. Concerted efforts need to begin as soon as possible, so that risks can be mitigated, and potentials can be exploited for a better, cleaner and safer world.

Makshudul Alom Mokul Mondal is a graduate student at the Alliance Manchester Business School, University of Manchester. He is also a Global Shaper at the World Economic Forum.